Wake County Project - Introduction

How many species should a birder expect to find in Wake County?  This is a difficult question to answer. According to eBird, 302 different bird species were sighted in Wake County between 1900 and 2013. Over the 10 year period from 2004 - 2013, a respectable 280 of these 302 species were recorded. Some of the missing, such as the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker, have not been reported in Wake County for many years, and are unlikely to return due to habitat destruction. A birder would now need to go to Harnett or Cumberland County to have a decent chance of spotting one.

But a look at the raw data suggests that a significant proportion of the birds recently reported for Wake County are quite rare. For example, in the period from 2004-2013, 22 (8%) of 280 species have only been reported on one eBird checklist. A total of 47 species (17%) have been reported three times or fewer, and 72 species (26%) have been reported on less than 10 checklists in ten years. Obviously, the likelihood of seeing such rare species in a normal year is very low. And it is certainly possible that a few of these sightings may have been identification errors.

If we remove all birds reported on fewer than 10 checklists between 2004 and 2013, there are 208 species with a reasonable chance of being identified and reported by someone in Wake County in a given year, but the likelihood that all of them could be seen by one person is extremely small. There is a tool on Ebird that allows a birder to select a region (such as a county or state) and display a species list for that region, ranked by species frequency. The frequency is the percentage of checklists turned in for that region with a particular species listed. If I look for the 208th most frequent species on the Wake County list, I find that the Mississippi Kite has been identified in Wake County on 0.072% of checklists, or about one in every 1400 checklists. Several species are reported approximately once every 1000 checklists, such as the Black-bellied Plover, EasternWhippoorwill, Kentucky  Warbler, Dunlin, and Great Black-backed Gull. These birds are the 196th to 201st most frequent on the list. The Eastern Screech Owl, at number 189 on the list, is reported on about one in every 700 checklists. The Snowy Egret and Lesser Black-backed Gull are reported once every 480 checklists, and are at numbers 181 and 180 on the frequency list.

A frequency list is not the perfect way to determine how easy it might be to see a bird species. Some species may not be reported very often because they have a very restricted range, even though they are easy to check off a list if you go to the right place. For example, the Red HeadedWoodpecker and the Pileated Woodpecker are reported on approximately 7% of lists, but if I wanted a Red Headed Woodpecker I know exactly where to go to almost certainly see one (the eastern part of the Abbott's Creek Trail in Raleigh). The Pileated Woodpecker is more widespread, but seems to require a bit more luck to spot on any particular outing. Still, the frequency list should provide a good idea of which birds I might need to chase, versus which birds I'm likely to see by happenstance while pursuing the less common species.

What I'm hoping to avoid is trying to find birds that may not even be in Wake County every year, or that only one or two people manage to see in a season.  I want to set a challenging goal, but one that is obtainable with mostly weekend outings. Looking at the data from eBird, it seems that a goal of 180 species over a three year period might be a nice mix of challenging but obtainable. This number would be about 60% of all species reported in Wake County since 1900. In order to find these birds, I can explore eBird for the hotspots that have the greatest numbers of species throughout the year, I can check the BirdsEye app for unusual or rare birds in the area, and the eBird site will allow me to set up a "Needs Alert" that will inform me when birds that are not on my lifelist are reported within Wake County. With these tools, some discipline, and some luck, I should be able to make a run at this goal. If not, I should at least have fun trying.

My plan for this blog, at least initially, is to begin drafting the blog entry before I set out on each birding trip, so that I can record my plan in advance - where I plan to go, what unusual birds I'm hoping to see, and so on. Then I'll make the trip and report back how I fared. Three years from the start date, I can evaluate my success. On my previous project, I managed to see 90 species over a four year span by exclusively visiting the Capital Area Greenway system. Hopefully with more experience and fewer restrictions on where I can go, it won't be impossible to double that figure in three years.